Another off-season has come to an end, and we’re only a couple days away from real football! This off-season was a little quieter than last, potentially due to the hype of the 2017 class of rookie picks and a little more league parity as we head into our 3rd season. Optimism abounds for every team in the league as each team is currently tied. That said, it shouldn’t be long until we find out who are the contenders and who are the pretenders in the chase for the Igloo Bowl III title.
As I already mentioned, there appears to be much more parity in the league this season. Outside of the Bandits, there aren’t any teams that I would call playoff locks, and there aren’t any teams I can safely say have no shot. That wasn’t the case in 2015. This should be the tightest season yet, with that 6 point Week 13 being all-important in determining who gets in the dance and where they are seeded.
Here’s a quick run-down of each team’s chances this year in worst to first fashion. I’ve included their chances of making the playoffs (P) and winning a championship (C). Take a look at last season’s projections to see how well the computers fared.
1. The Fear Boners (P – 17.4%, C – 1.5%)
The Skinny: The Boners have improved immensely over 2015, and could make some noise and play spoiler, but I’m not sure they have the depth to pull out important points through the bye weeks to get them into the playoffs. After a rough first year, they have been adding plenty of young talent but are still probably another year away from seriously competing. The Martavis Bryant suspension didn’t do them any favours. I have a feeling they will start out slowly this season, but could come on as their young players get more playing time. If they come out of the gate with a few early losses, maybe they will finally move on from Larry Fitzgerald, who could be huge for a contender. Another top 5 rookie pick could have the Boners at full mast in 2017.
Key Player: Khalil Mack – Getting moved to DE is huge for Mack’s value, and it should put him squarely in the DPOY race. It’s probably the only positional advantage the Boners are likely to enjoy.
2. Knuckle Ballers (P – 28.0%, C – 2.5%)
The Skinny: I probably could have left exactly what I wrote last year for this squad. Blah blah blah, no depth, blah blah blah, shitty division. The Ballers have some great players, but their outlook for the flex looks downright awful, and they will have to hope for huge leaps from multiple players to keep their playoff streak alive. I don’t think I would be too thrilled if my season relied on significant contributions from the likes of Torrey Smith, Devante Adams, and Rashad Jennings. The defense will be much improved, despite the kick in the balls the Chandler Jones position change was.
Key Player: Brock Osweiler – Tom Brady sits the first four weeks, and it’s on Osweiler to carry the Ballers until his return. If Osweiler doesn’t improve on his fantasy numbers from 2015, the Ballers could be out of it before they get their best player back. I am somewhat surprised they left Dak on the Taxi Squad after he got the starting nod.
3. The Long Snappers (P – 29.6%, C – 3.2%)
The Skinny: The Snappers turned it around big time in 2015, ending up being a surprise playoff team. Despite that, the computers still hate this team and project them to be on the outside looking in again this season. It’s quite understandable when you consider they carry 8 DB and only 3 RB. That’s definitely not a recipe for success. The rest of the team is decent, including a great young set of WR, but without any runners, the Snappers could be the not so proud winners of the Frittata Bowl for the 2nd time in 3 seasons. They could also be in line for a number of incomplete line up fines. Burning through seasons with a core like this due to mismanagement at RB could come back to bite them in the ass down the road.
Key Player: Matt Jones – When you only have one starting running back, you will need him to be an absolute monster.
4. Chalupa Batman (P – 37.0%, C – 3.6%)
The Skinny: The Chalupas have gone from powerhouse to afterthought quickly this off-season. After a loss in the championship game, GM Laker blew it all up, despite still having a team that could compete in 2016. They have some good young talent, but most of it is still a year or two away, and as a result, there isn’t much for depth on this squad, nor a ton of high-end pieces. In order to be a playoff squad, the Chalupas have to continue their regular season dominance over the Nagintas and hope to pick up as many scoring VP as they can. We don’t like their chances, and they likely end their playoff streak as well.
Key Player: Corey Coleman – There isn’t much left at WR for the Chalupas, turning what was once a strength into a massive liability. Coleman is probably the only WR on the active roster with WR1 potential. Can he fill the void in the early season with Josh Gordon out, and carry that through what should be a rough season in Cleveland?
5. Deadly Nagintas (P – 42.1%, C – 6.2%)
The Skinny: After a championship season, the Nagintas sold a number of high profile pieces and have been acquiring 2017 1st round picks like crazy? Despite their sell-off, the Nagintas are in a tightly bunched group likely fighting for the final playoff spot. They will need to take advantage of the teams ranked below them in the division to have a chance, as well as score well to pick up important VP to have a shot. This has been the calling card of Nagintas teams in the past…scoring well and finishing ahead of teams with better records, so the GM has to hope history repeats itself. The squad still starts the season with 3 guys that could be WR1, and should get a 4th after a 4-week suspension. The running game will be the question mark, as the Nagintas roll with several older players at the position.
Key Player: Dez Bryant – After an injury plagued 2015, the Nagintas will need a serious rebound from the Cowboys star to have a legitimate playoff shot.
6. Rex in the City (P – 42.9%, C – 5.1%)
The Skinny: The Rexes found out first hand how difficult it can be to overcome injuries last season, as they went from a championship to the Frittata Bowl. They very well could be in the same boat in 2016, with what is likely the oldest team in the league. If they end up with some drop off in performance due to age, they could be in for another long season and another appearance in the Frittata Bowl. The defense is solid, but not spectacular, and this roster is going to need a top to bottom revamp (other than QB) within a season or two. How long does Commish get to rest on the laurels from winning Igloo Bowl I?
Key Player: DeMarco Murray/Matt Forte – Both of these guys are going to have to have big years for the Rexes to contend. Will they both get the usage needed to make it happen?
7. Endzone Dancers (P – 43.0%, C – 5.8%)
The Skinny: The Dancers have an interesting team, and are the first team in our list projected to punch a ticket to the big dance. That said, this is projected by the slimmest of margins, and likely requires a lot to go right for them and a lot to go wrong for the Rexes and Nagintas. The Dancers look good at RB, and on D, and have to be hoping for at least one more season of relevance for Antonio Gates and Carson Palmer. They’re the only team projected to be in the playoffs with any real ammo in the 2017 draft, having 2 picks to the other 5 teams zero combined. This could be a serious factor down the stretch if they find themselves in the mix and need reinforcements.
Key Player: Charles Johnson – Is this finally the year he stays healthy and lives up to the potential? Scott needs a full-size WR to step up as all of those small guys tend to get pretty banged up, and JB is already dealing with concussion issues.
8. Greg Schiano is an Idiot (P – 51.8%, C – 6.0%)
The Skinny: The Idiots had a regular season for the ages in 2015, dominating from start to finish, but unfortunately came up short of their goal of a championship. They still have a few elite performers, but the serious depth they had last year isn’t there anymore. They will need to stay healthy to come out on top in what is looking like a tough Yobagoya division. The Idiots are loaded with talented young WR, and their growth and performance will be a big factor in how far the Idiots go. All in all, this team doesn’t scare anyone anymore, but they could still have enough to give themselves a chance.
Key Player: Ezekial Elliot – The rook is going to have to live up to expectations, and maybe more for the Idiots to lock up a playoff spot.
9. Tom Selleck’s Moustache (P – 66.4%, C – 10.9%)
The Skinny: The Stache have had horrible luck through their first two seasons in the EBFL, but this could be the year they turn the page, and make their first playoff appearance. In the process they could join the Snappers, going from Frittata Bowl ‘winner’ to the playoff team. They made quite a significant move today to add to their depth. Most of the time, I don’t like shipping off the best player in a deal when you’re a contender, but acquiring Landry and Gordon could be the key to ending the playoff drought. Ultimately, the defense will be what lets this team down.
Key Player: Zach Ertz – The Stache looks good at the rest of the offensive positions. If they can get at least a mid TE1 season out of Ertz, they could make some noise.
10. San Juan Bananas (P – 68.9%, C – 11.7%)
The Skinny: The Bananas are always in the playoff mix, and this year will be no exception, as the computers have them projected as the division winner by a narrow margin. The Bananas tend to get things done with guys that aren’t sexy names, and don’t necessarily carry a ton of trade value, but they ultimately perform. There is reasonable depth at each of the offensive positions and the defense is good enough. They may have a rough time at DE to begin the year with 2 key guys suspended. Terrance Williams is no longer on the squad, which should mean good things, for both the Bananas and Terrance Williams.
Key Player: Jordan Reed – Reed is a key cog in the Banana machine, but he has scrambled eggs between his ears. Him staying healthy will be huge, as I don’t think anyone wants to roll with Kyle Rudolph in their starting line-up.
11. What Does John Fox Say (P – 76.5%, C – 14.8%)
The Skinny: WDJFS was highly active again this off-season and took his lousy team from 2015 and turned it into a contender heading into this season. It probably helps his cause that the rest of the division has a less than 50% chance of making the playoffs. I still wouldn’t consider them a lock as this team is also pretty old, and some key players may start to regress. There’s always the possibility Scotty trades his team out of contention as well. That said, we like this team to get their first division crown.
Key Player: Rob Gronkowski – No one is as big of a positional advantage as a healthy Gronk. He’s been banged up this preseason, so Scotty best be crossing his fingers he comes out strong.
12. Loose Bandits (P – 96.5%, C – 28.8%)
The Skinny: We said last year the Bandits were likely a year away…well that year has arrived, and they’re shaping up to be the team to beat. They may come out and dominate like the Idiots did last season. They turned all of those 1st round picks into studs, and now have playmakers all over the field. The defense should improve again this year, making for a well-rounded club, and probably the only real lock for a playoff spot, and likely the number one seed, considering the off-season sell-offs by their division rivals.
Key Player: Ameer Abdullah – The only real question mark for the Bandits is their RB2/3 spots. They will need week-to-week contributions down the stretch from Abdullah and/or Yeldon to get their name on the trophy.
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